Oh, Crap, My Big Election’s Tomorrow! Gotta Cram!

Come Tuesday, it’s gonna be fight or flight, sink or swim, with us or against us. Come Tuesday, the dice are gonna be rolled and the chips will fall where they may and they shall inherit the wind. Come Tuesday, it’ll be to be or not to be. Come Tuesday, it is going to be on.

So are you ready to throw down – old school American style?

That’s right, there’s nothing more patriotic than voting, except maybe voting in your authentic replica tri-corner cap with a leg amputation after a Redcoat shot you in the knee. Now, I know we’re all good patriots here, right?

So if you don’t know what you’re doing on the Fourth, here’s your quick and dirty primer.

Electioneering: Don’t Do It

Sort of like Imagineering, except that it’s against the law. Your convictions may be strong as an ancient oak and hot as a raging forest fire, but when you’re at the polls, leave the shirts, buttons, hats, g-strings and any other paraphernalia endorsing a candidate or party at home. Poll workers will require that anything with a candidate’s name, face, logo or political slogan will be either covered up or removed — and there are some things you’d probably rather be wearing while you’re in that giant mass of voting public.

Still Undecided?

Really? I don’t believe you, person who is probably a young college female. Regardless: vote Obama if you value a progressive agenda over long Congresional experience, if you’re liberal on social issues (gay marriage, reproductive rights), if you support higher taxes on the rich and lower taxes on everyone else, if you prefer diplomacy to aggression and if you don’t mind Mickey Mouse being a registered voter. Vote McCain if you prefer a guy with a long track record over a relatively untested candidate, if you’re conservative on social issues, if you support lower taxes for businesses in the interest of boosting the economy, if you prefer a hard-line stance on international issues, and if you don’t mind a dinosaur sitting in the Oval Office.

Some States To Watch

After you’ve voted, you’ll probably still be interested in watching the national results trickle in — your state, perhaps not so much, unless you live in Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio… and so on. Battleground states are everywhere this year, as Obama puts into play states that Kerry couldn’t touch and McCain plays defense in his firewalls. In particular? If you’re looking for a McCain win, keep an eye on Florida, Missouri and Georgia — all states that McCain has a good shot of winning, but if he drops a single one, it’s doubtful he’ll be able to put his electoral majority together. Pennsylvania’s probably in the bag for Obama, but its 23 electoral votes will make it a hot potato, and the Illinois senator hasn’t sealed the deal yet. Colorado, on the other hand, won’t be much of a fight — the comfortably Bush state from 2004 is likely going to Obama this year. Check out FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics for some extra info.

Those Damn Polls

Some polls show an Obama blowout, some polls show the candidates neck-and-neck and a single day of Zogby polling even showed McCain in the lead by a tiny margin — what’s the deal? This is a rough year for pollsters — almost historically so, in fact. The youth vote is huge this year, as Obama’s campaign colossus scours the Internet for enthusiastic first-time voters. What this means is that traditional polling – which takes into account previous voting behavior as an indicator of how likely one is to vote – might be missing an awful lot of new voters – who, being young, are likely to break for Obama.

Additionally, there’s the ‘cellphone effect’ – many people don’t have land lines, and so are less likely to be contacted by pollsters. These people are also more likely to be young Obama supporters, and FiveThirtyEight has an interesting summary of cell-phone inclusive against non-cell-phone inclusive polls.

And finally, there’s the “Bradley Effect”: African-American gubernatorial candidate Tom Bradley lost the 1982 California governor’s race, despite going in with a strong lead in the polls. The supposed explanation? Some Americans respond with the socially acceptable answer in polls – i.e., they’re fine with voting for a black candidate – but when they get into the voting booth, they’re less likely to feel pressured into political correctness. Will it deflate Obama’s lead, or will his other potential edges make this election a true blowout? Only Tuesday will tell.

Personally, I can’t believe that this two-year marathon is finally drawing to a close – how the hell will I put off my classwork?