Early voting means that the 2020 presidential election is underway, with an unprecedented number of voters already heading to the polls to have their say. At the moment, twenty-six-million ballots have been cast, which is 19% of all the votes in the 2016 campaign. However, while the numbers are astonishing, they can’t give any insight into the potential winner. For that, it’s best to turn to polls or betting sites because, even though they can’t guarantee the outcome, they keep a close eye on the crucial trends that go someway to predicting the outcome.
Here is what they say at this moment in time.
Biden Has a Clear Lead
No matter which way you look at it, the betting sites highlight Biden has a clear lead over the incumbent president. The polls say he has a significant lead over Trump, depending on which one you turn to – Opinium Research has the former VP a record seventeen points ahead, while Pew Research Center is more conservative at ten percentage points. The betting sites only back this up as the majority of betting odds on the US election have Biden as the clear favorite at 4/9. Trump is 7/4. Biden’s lead hasn’t changed much since the debate and town hall events, yet that could change as Barack Obama hits the campaign trail on his behalf.
Don’t Discount Donald Trump
Of course, it would be wrong to say that the man who didn’t have a chance in 2016 is out of the race with fewer than fourteen days before the election is finalized. After all, some UK bookmakers stopped taking bets on the president at the beginning of October, believing he was finished. Currently, a couple of weeks on, his odds give him more than a 30% shot of being victorious on November 3rd. In comparison, his percentage odds were as low as 16% against Hilary Clinton and he still pulled off an upset. The swing states figures in Georgia, Iowa and Ohio have the Republicans on top, and they are more important than New York and California when you factor in the Electoral College.
People Are Invested
It’s usually difficult to gauge how invested people are in an event. However, the betting sites provide a perfect evaluation in terms of their figures. On the whole, $25 million has been placed in the form of wagers on the election in the last seven days. Although global bets on the US presidential election are nothing new, the 2020 version seems to have sparked people’s imagination as the number is 15% of the total of the last four years. And, with around two weeks to go before the polls are closed, there’s plenty of room left for gamblers to show their involvement.
It’s important to remember that polls and predictions aren’t infallible. Still, there’s a lot to take from the data, and the information at the minute shows Joe Biden with a gilt-edged opportunity to become the 46th president of the United States. But, it’s impossible to rule out the king of comebacks, particularly as he rallied from a worse position in 2016.